Ideeleradio .- The challenges to the presidential candidate of Ghana Peru, Ollanta Humala, could affect the rise in voter preferences, because there is a sector that is afraid of their positions, said Giovanna Peñaflor, director of Imasen.
was when asked by the resumption of hearings in the case of buying my Mother witnesses in the case and the rising price of dollar exchange, an aspect which is attributed to increased intention to vote for Humala Tasso.
"There is definitely a sector that is afraid of Peru Earn positions, I think there are still fears that there are levels of resistance. These kinds of things trigger resistance and this resistance will generate movements, do not forget that people do not just vote 'for' but also 'against'. This element of evaluation will be present and as we know it is present, can be used by each other, "he said in the program Ideeleradio No Law.
However, Peñaflor Guerra explained that the rise of the voting intentions of the presidential candidate Gana Peru, Ollanta Humala, is due to a change of its radicalism of 2006 to a quieter performance and yet different from the other candidates.
"If Humala has been a repositioning of the candidacy of Ghana Peru, ie radical tone down, lower levels of resistance and also believe that the performance in the debates and interviews has improved . Ollanta Humala is the only candidate clearly differentiated from the rest and in that sense, which had more room to grow. There is a mixture of success in the communications strategy, plus the logic of a differentiated positioning is not the case with the other candidates " said.
Toledo wear and Castaneda favor PPK
regard to the rise in the polls presidential candidate Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (Alliance for the Great Shift), emphasized that this improvement is due, firstly, the weakening of the campaigns of their rivals Alejandro Toledo and Luis Castillo and, secondly, that some sectors of the population regard it as the best option to govern.
"In the case of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK), his rise has to do with the weakening of the campaigns of Toledo and Castillo, or the three share a similar space, if one goes the other fall and vice versa ", he said.
"Castaneda has committed a series of errors, has not found a central and well differentiated and Toledo, many messages, too many promises and errors in style reminiscent of the defects that do not like a section of people and this has benefited the PPK, which has emerged as the choice for those seeking continuity sectors. The big question is whether it will go from Lima to the provinces, and segments A, B, C to lower, "he added.
Luis Castaneda and the second round
The expert considered that while the poll numbers show that the National Solidarity candidate, Luis Castañeda, has the option of moving to a second round, the negative trend makes it unlikely that possibility.
"Castañeda also be in that possibility, but if the trend is what makes them less optimistic because while others come in sustained positive trend, where the tendency is rather negative and you do not see well in campaign elements that say he has made a significant break. Is a candidate who needs to relocate his campaign, "he said.
JNE wants revenge
surveys questioned, moreover, National Elections to the results of light called oversight, considering that this is a revenge against companies that are studying the opinion and ensured that the electoral body back in its attempt to control and request information from respondents.
"This already goes beyond simple error and not understanding what the role of pollsters, or how the numbers work. Definitely, this situation suggests that behind this search is a discredit to the polls in general and respond to political interests, plus there is a reaction of blood in the eye. So, finally having had to go back by a poorly formulated rule appears a desire for revenge against the issue of companies that do this kind of polls, "he said.
Surveys are misunderstood
felt that the surveys are read and understood the wrong way, because the public is based on the positions of the candidates and do not realize that the trend is to be shortened the distances between each other.
said that the polls show that one can speak of a statistical tie in which applicants who are located at the top can go to a runoff election regardless of the location found.
"What they are saying all the polls is that distances have been shortened, which came in first place has gone down to the distance from the others, there are two candidates who have an upward trend, there two candidates who are on a downward trend and a candidate who is standing. What you need is a misreading of the polls and a lack of understanding of the polls, "he said.
"It is incomprehensible that in a scenario like this, the survey fails to become the central element or only to establish what is what is happening. The problem is that he is asking the general survey in a vision or ability to forecast that is far beyond what these polls, "he said.
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